We just saw the first 16 acts of the Top 32 compete in front of their respective mentors. Here is my breakdown of those performances with some predictions mixed in here and there.
Brian Bradley - The cocky young rapper L.A. Reid feels might be too young took it old school with Grandmaster Flash's 1982 classic "The Message" from his self-titled debut album. Bradley's flow and timing were impeachable and even impressed special guest judge Rihanna enough to the point where she admitted he was just too cute in her eyes to even make an immediate judgment. Reid's assessment pertaining to Bradley's maturity level might still win the day but it's pretty clear that his artistic maturity level is on the rise. Only four from each category can advance. The 14 year-old prodigy in waiting did everything he could but it still might not be enough and with fellow rapper Chris Rene in the mix as well as Marcus Canty, Brennin Hunt, and dark horse country singer Tim Cifers lurking, it's tough to imagine Reid taking more than one rapper when even he expresses doubts about a rapper in a singing competition out loud to one of his own greatest prodigies. Talent-wise he's more than ready but given L.A.'s own doubts about his current maturity level, I am far from sold that Bradley is a lock to advance despite deserving to do so without question when simply measured on the merits alone.
Simone Battle - Battle had been, well, embattled, and she needed a strong rebound performance with an extremely deep girls field. I believe she got it and Simon was very impressed. Battle turned down the hubris (hear that Brian Bradley?), and then turned on the smooth charm with a very tenderized piano ballad version of The Beatles' "Help" and judging from Simon's reaction, she certainly put her best foot forward.
The Anser - The Anser took a chance on covering Pink's "Perfect" in another slow and piano driven ballad version. Personally I think the group category is wide open because it has the most question marks but I do think that this version will probably be enough for Paula to advance them to the live rounds. It was legitimately decent but perhaps a little too sluggish. If they fail to advance, that could be the difference. Still, I consider them as safe of a wild card as I can name, but keep in mind that the biggest wild card in the entire competition is still Paula Abdul herself.
Dexter Haygood - In what was one of the more bizarre performances of the night, Haygood belted out a very disoriented and dizzying version of Beyonce's "Crazy In Love" and I just worry that Nicole Scherzinger and special guest Enrique Inglesias found it to be too in their face and too unruly for the former Pussycat Dolls leader to put him into the live rounds. Despite L.A. Reid telling him to stop thinking that it's the end, I worry that this time it really is. The judges have been tacitly rooting for him out loud, wanting to put him through, for both personal and television viewing purposes, and his feel good story writes itself but in order for that to work, Haygood had to at least be in the ballpark with his performances. With standouts Elaine Gibbs, Josh Krajcik, Stacy Francis, and other old-timer favorite LeRoy Bell lurking, as well as dark horses Christa Collins and James Kenney, Haygood might have taken the silliness too far. The silver lining? Look for him to get some kind of record contract anyway. His story is too heartbreaking and heartwarming to go completely unrewarded. Haygood might still walk away a winner yet even if it's not as the $5 million winner.
Skyelar Anderson - Tony Rich's "Nobody Knows" was his song of choice but it feels like we do know that he probably won't advance this time around. L.A. Reid and Beyonce both enjoyed his potential but seem to rather overtly feel that he needs to be more polished. A 16 year-old African-American country singer with the tragic back story of having lost his father to cancer right in front of him and his brother being shot to death still has the potential to resonate with live viewers but it might have to wait until Season 2.
Tora Woloshin - In what was a very interesting cover of The Rolling Stones staple "Satisfaction", a suddenly nervous Woloshin put her best foot forward but she seemed to be teetering on the edge of losing all the impressively cool confidence she brought to her first audition and the ensuing Boot Camp rounds. Simon professed his love for Tora but conceded that there was just something not there and given the unparalleled depth of his girls group, we might have to wait for Season 2 to see Tora take her game to the next level. Still, reality show editing has a way of throwing us head fakes and it'd be wise and prudent to not count out the ambitious young mechanic just yet because her talent and appeal are both still very much there even if her confidence might be a little shaken right now.
Lakoda Rayne - The first of the two manufactured groups to sing in the Top 32 round impressed me enough to write this and while the girls themselves felt like something was missing with their audition, there's a very good chance that Paula Abdul will look past how throw together the girls before making her final decision. The girls were very wise and mature for their age, opting to gather at Cari Fletcher's Wall Township, New Jersey house to practice and their choreography of their countrified version of Lady Gaga's tolerance anthem "Born This Way" was just different enough to be unique without losing itself in another "weirdo version" as Simon would say. A coin toss at this point but one I would love to see be given the chance to progress. Post-X Factor they certainly have both the potential and mass appeal to succeed and that won't be lost on whoever signs them once they are done on FOX.
Stacy Francis - Perhaps the standout moment of the evening, with the possible exceptions of Elaine Gibbs and Drew Ryniewicz. Francis took Prince's classic "Purple Rain" and turned it into a gospel fueled choir backed gem. Francis brought all the emotion of her first audition and meshed it with all the unleashed but still perfectly harnessed vocal firepower she has in her arsenal. It would not just be a surprise but also an absolute scandal if she doesn't advance. Nicole and Enrique seemed perfectly onboard and it's tough to imagine that not carrying the day in what might have been the highlight of the entire episode. Look for Francis to easily advance.
The Brewer Boys - I have to call shenanigans on Paul Abdul here. In what was clearly a shameless Rihanna promoting ploy on FOX's part, given her connection to L.A. Reid, even if she wasn't even with this category as its special guest judge, also seemed like a very naked sabotage job on Abdul's part. Why on Earth would he make The Brewer Boys cover Rihanna's "Only Girl In The World" is beyond anybody's comprehension. Yes, this is Paula Abdul we are talking about but even for her this seems like it was just an obvious attempt to destroy any real chance the brother duo could have of advancing in the competition and given their uniqueness and obvious appeal to young female demographics, it just makes Paula's ill-timed wackiness that much more baffling. The Brewer Boys deserve a chance to be voted on and in Season 1, not Season 2 but we'll see if America's most spaced out reality show judge calls it.
Phillip Lomax - Another curious case of apparent sabotage on behalf of a judge. L.A. Reid throws Lomax out with a cover of Rihanna's "Please Don't Stop The Music" to be sung in front of Rihanna herself. He might as well changed the lyrics to "Please Don't Stop My Journey On The X Factor" for that matter because it smelled of a professional hit on the Rat Pack styled crooner. And it's a shame. Lomax was entertaining but ultimately more novelty at first to me but he has grown on me since the competition has progressed and it's exactly that kind of old school feel that a 21 year-old soul feels such kinship to that should be allowed a chance to be advance or be sent home o sheer merit. L.A. Reid said to Rihanna that he doubted his commercial viability but I completely disagree. He's one of those singers who would appeal to a very specific genre, or perhaps even sub genre, and could make a very nice career out of it. Just because he's not Bruno Mars doesn't mean he can't be Harry Connick, Jr. and it'd be a waste to see that opportunity, well, wasted. If he does get sent home after doing what he was assigned and doing it very well, it'd be a shame to see such an honest and brilliant effort go unrewarded. Lomax might have been on the bubble to begin with but should he indeed be cut and come back for Season 2, he might adapt a more faithful following because of how his perceived hose job by one of the judges himself.
Elaine Gibbs - Gibbs has mostly flown under the radar due to more restricted coverage so far but she is rapidly losing her stealth status. Gibbs has been playing with house money from the beginning but now we are starting to see what kind of secret weapon that FOX has been holding back on us and she has now made it ostensibly harder on Nicole to keep someone like Dexter Haygood around, or perhaps one of the other dark horses, and her performance stood out as clearly one of the three best performances of the evening. Look for the 53 year-old to get the nod for the live rounds.
Caitlin Koch - The 22 year-old unlikely Rugby player is still very much a favorite in this competition and judging from Simon Cowell's reaction to her performance last night, she still seems very much in the running. Koch performed a very stirring version of Carole King's classic "Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow" and my guess is that America will absolutely still love her tomorrow and when she gets to be voted on live. Cowell raved about her pitch and tone and pretty much everything else. It's hard to imagine she doesn't advance.
Nick Voss - The interesting Vanilla Ice reminding singer sang the Tears For Fears classic "Everybody Wants To Rule The World" but it didn't seem to garner the warm reception that he needed to advance. Rihanna seemed less than impressed and L.A. Reid seemed to indicate that he was not going to make the cut as well. Voss is an interesting personality and I could still see him coming back for Season 2 if he does in fact get cut, and his persona in general could garner other entertainment industry opportunities as well.
4Shore - 4Shore is a tricky group to figure out. They are pretty decent sounding but there still lacks an obvious "Wow" factor that is required to be the next Boys II Men. The Stereo Hogzz seem to be a little more in sync with each other and I'd be hard pressed to think that both groups will advance. Mr. Brownstone's "If You Love Me" impressed special guest Pharrell vocally but my guess is that it didn't impress Paula enough to love them enough to advance them. Their X Factor and post-X Factor futures both seem to be in limbo given the tepid response to them by the judges.
James Kenney - James Kenney is another enigma. He gave a very decent vocal on his own Rihanna cover ("Russian Roulette") but in the very crowded Over 30 field, perhaps one of the two best groups in the competition, it didn't feel enough to break through to the live rounds but should he advance he has several personal traits and attributes that would make him very appealing to certain key voting demographics (i.e. cougars, tweeners, etc.).
Drew Ryniewicz - There was absolutely no suspense here. Her surprise song assignment of the 80's Roxette tune "It Must Have Been Love" was another slowed down version of a well known song but hers really took flight. Ryniewicz absolutely personifies being too young to be scared and her fearlessness translates into both stronger confidence and stronger vocals than many of those in the competition much older than her. Simon clearly has a spot for her in the live rounds and it'd be a complete stunner to not see her advance. It's starting to become rather abundantly clear that the well oiled Simon Cowell machine has more than a couple stars on its hands and Ryniewicz is in that upper tier of budding star talent. It's safe to say at this point that a long desired duet with Justin Bieber will be taking place at some point during the live competition.
I will refrain from making my predictions about how will take each categories' much coveted final four spots for the live competition rounds but I do think that you are probably looking at a few certainties from last night. You have to imagine that Caitlin Koch and Drew Ryniewicz are locks from the girls side. Despite Brian Bradley's very strong performance, I'm still not sold he's lock for this season. Stacy Francis and Elaine Gibbs seem like locks from the Over 30 contingency. My guess is that The Anser is probably as near a lock as there is for the Groups but don't rule out Lakoda Rayne. They might be given extra leeway and I strongly believe that if given the chance to shine on the live stage that they could build a steamrolling force of momentum. Tora Woloshin, Dexter Haygood, Nick Voss, Phillip Lomax, and 4Shore are all on the bubble and everyone else is too uncertain for me to even guess.
That's it for now. We'll do this all again either Sunday Night or whenever the hell FOX next broadcasts The X Factor!
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