I will be doing this after each airing from here on out. I will, on a weekly basis, be updating who the favorites, contenders, dark horses, and wild cards are. Don't read too much into a favorite of yours being ranked as vulnerable one week. These things have a funny way of changing from week to week so let the fun begin!
THE FAVORITES
Caitlin Koch - When Simon Cowell was on Jimmy Kimmel Live promoting The X Factor, Kimmel inevitably asked him if any former American Idol singers had tried out and Cowell devilishly gloated that he loved turning all of them down. WRONG! In fact, I don't think she ever got any face time whatsoever on Season 10, or it was very, very little if she did. Well, that shows you the depth of the talent that Cowell's former show produced this past season but let's not tell Simon. He's still found a potential star in this 21 year-old Buffalo, NY native. She's a favorite to win this and her body of work thus far affirms it.
Drew Ryniewicz - Many people were fooled by her audition as to how serious of a singer she was going based on her Justin Bieber obsessed persona. For many, this generally has joke contestant written all over it. I was not one of those people. I knew she'd be good. I just didn't realize she'd be great. This 14 year-old could win the whole thing. She's young, cute, boy crazy, and she made Justin Bieber's own signature song into a decent song. (Finally!) Somebody had to do it and it might as well have been his number one fan. She could very well be Number One herself after this competition. Love her pleasantly surprisingly mature voice and her personality, of which she has plenty of. She'll be a force to be reckoned with barring an unexpected Top 32 meltdown. I'd be willing to bet that she'll get her chance to share the stage with her barely older than herself idol.
Rachel Crow - She wants her own bathroom and the 13 year-old has a crowd friendly personality to help get her that. However, vocally speaking, I wonder where she now stands. She's currently a tentative favorite from my standpoint. If she falters, she could be quick to go. If she gets out of the gate strong, she could be a very tough competitor to knock out of the running. Perhaps the most fascinating pre-Top 32 favorite to watch because of that.
Tiah Tolliver - She needs no introduction. She has worldwide superstar tattooed all over her and she would be gobbled up by millions of adoring fans and still be just controversial enough to her haters to help move her from beyond just relevant to stardom. She had the standout vocal during the Group round in which even a stunned Chesi Springs was blown away by her fellow team member's spectacular vocal which left Simon Cowell feeling gleefully vindicated and unafraid to rub it in Nicole Scherzinger's face. Her cover of "Feeling Good" will have her feeling good for some time to come and regardless of her finish, Simon Cowell clearly has a star on his hands with her if the stars themselves properly and the post-show timing is right. Cowell is obviously pushing hard for her at this point and now having her directly under his own modesty-free tutelage will only help serve his own ambitious star making goals that the show itself has been created for.
Tora Woloshin - Like Tiah, Tora has widespread appeal, has a very strong personality and charm about her, can change your oil and a flat tire, and has the look of an international star to match her starlike vocals. She is definitely one to watch and when it's all said and done she should walk away with nothing less than a recording contract of some kind even if she doesn't win. Men and boys will love her "one of the guys but still very ladylike" quality, and women and girls will love her because they will love her quirky style and look and will want to emulate her. She's a winner regardless of her finish.
Chris Rene - The recovering addict projects great success in the Rap/R&B/Pop crossover categories and he will undoubtedly be extremely popular with young people, especially girls and women. He will be his own worst enemy but also his own best friend. The longer he stays clean and sober, the better chance he has to make a star out of himself and provide a life to his son that this current trash collector probably could have never imagined before auditioning.
Josh Krajcik - This self-described burrito slinger is everything America loves in an unconventional star. He has an amazing voice with a very ordinary look to boot to go along with it, and his offbeat personality, as well as his desire to immediately find the bar with his mom after initially auditioning, has surely made him a heavy early favorite. People of all demographics will probably love him and what becomes of him both on and after the show will be interesting and great fun to watch.
Stacy Francis - The single 42 year-old mother has carried grief and pain with her every step of the way on her journey. There is utterly no way that this unbelievably talented vocalist will fail to advance to the live rounds. Her back story and her talent all rolled in one will make her few enemies. She will almost certainly get a record deal out of her time on the show one way or another and after the hell that she has been to and back, she certainly deserves it and I strongly believe it doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict that America will wholeheartedly agree.
THE CONTENDERS
Melanie Amaro - She is not quite as front and center personality wise as the favorites but I fully anticipate her getting a nice solid bump up into that category at some point provided she survives the Top 32 cut. She's not in your face and she has a very refreshing modesty to her for her age. Her potential is very interesting but also very exciting. Her modest personality could rob her of superstardom but her voice shouldn't rob her of a very long and quality career. She'll survive in some form or another past the show. She's definitely one to watch because she has the potential to breakthrough into the Favorites category and go far.
Simone Battle - She might not need to work on her confidence but perhaps she has finally worked on some much needed humility. The judges saved her and wisely they did. The voice, look, and attitude are all there and like some of the other contestants left, she will be her own worst enemy. She too has great superstar potential and a corresponding career in film would certainly help cement her as an all-around celebrity diva. The worldwide success on both of these fronts is hers to take. The one question mark is how the voting audience will treat her given her early hubris. Hopefully, she gets the benefit of the doubt because he has Beyonce like aspirations and she would be too much fun to watch to see cast aside too early. And that's her one last hurdle before the live rounds. If she survives the Top 32 cut, she'll be one to monitor moving forward.
Brennin Hunt - This very Matt Dillon looking singer has a very high ceiling to work with. If he makes it out of the Top 32 than the teenage girls, young women, and the cougar coalition that has propelled the likes of David Cook, Lee DeWyze, Kris Allen, and Scotty McCreery to the winner's circle could very well do the same thing with Hunt if he advances past the Top 32 round. McCreery just reversed the low selling trend of recent Idol winners. This could be a very encouraging sign, especially to such cougar bait like Hunt. This Don Henley/The Eagles and Jackson Browne influenced singer-songwriter has the ability and capability of moving up to the Favorites circle as well if he advances to the live round.
Marcus Canty - Simon loves him and for good reason. He has great pop star like talent and charisma and at just 20, he could help secure the vital youth demographics needed to have long lasting success on the charts. He too should consider acting as well. He has that kind of diverse appeal should he advance to the Top 32 you could see another female-induced rise to the Favorites circle as well.
The Brewer Boys - I struggled to determine whether The Brewer Boys deserved to start off as a contender or dark horse. Since they are a group, I went with contender because I think they will be one of the better and popular groups among potential voters. If they survive the Top 32 they will almost certainly go far. They are a breath of fresh air and these two brothers have perfect harmony and timing and that will certainly resonate to The X Factor audience.
The Stereo Hogzz - Nicole Scherzinger clearly loves them. And if they make it to the live rounds, they will probably have a decent following as well. L.A. Reid and Simon Cowell pointed out that they are inconsistent but they finished the pre-Top 32 rounds quite strong so while they might otherwise be a wild card to start, I am opting to call them contenders to start.
THE DARK HORSES
Tim Cifers - Very little screen time so far but this 30 year-old country crooning family man is a very, very strong dark horse. He's a good looking young father, is country, and has a noticeably strong voice. If he makes it to the Top 32 round, he could corner the country market along with Lakoda Rayne, which makes him one to watch. He could however sneak up so quickly that he loses his dark horse status and rapidly ascends into the contender and favorite realms.
Christa Collins - I have already written quite glowingly about this ultra sexy singer. Christa is still one of the true dark horses in this competition. Just like Pia Toscano was shown a little bit during the taped segments before becoming a breakout celebrity, Collins could quickly sneak up on people. I've already said plenty about her so far but I will certainly be blogging more on her as the competition deepens.
Elaine Gibbs - Elaine is 53 years old but her talent is as fresh and exciting has any 23 year-old in this competition. Not much has been shown or learned about her so far but if she advances past the Top 32 round and is given a chance to hang around long enough on the live shows, she could become a seemingly unlikely favorite.
LeRoy Bell - He's written for Elton John and has a long and extensively impressive background in the industry but at 59 years old is taking what he claims is his last shot to be front and center and Bell could arguably become the first dark horse to contender or even favorite should he make it to the Top 32 round. He is the ultimate underdog and his voice is strong enough that his character and back story could propel him to his own success.
THE WILD CARDS
Jazzlyn Little - Jazzlyn Little could stand to have Simone Battle give her the excessive confidence she needs to shed because I wouldn't be surprised to see Little cut just strictly based on her stunning lack of confidence and stage freight issues. Having said that, if she pieces it together, she will quickly become a very strong favorite. She has superstar like talent and with confidence being the sole obstacle, her fate could go either way but whether it's this season or another one, she seems to be a likely star at some point.
Brian Bradley - You might have stopped looking at his mom but the real question is if after L.A. Reid correctly pointed out that he might be too young, can he recover some of that early momentum to become the superstar that Cowell himself has publicly stated he will definitely be. That seems to indicate he will either easily make the final pre-live cut but it could also mean that he needs some more seasoning before he can make that leap to superstardom but I do agree that he certainly has it in him to achieve that.
Nick Voss - One of the more curious choices. For someone shown fairly often so far he still remains a bit of a mystery. His audition had both good and not so good components and he might be on the chopping block to go live.
Phillip Lomax - It's quite possible that he's just not cut out for this show but it's hard not to love a 21 year-old in 2011 that channels the really old school crooners like Frank Sinatra and Dean Martin. He could very well benefit regardless of finish because a Harry Connick, Jr. like career could be waiting in the wings for him. He could prove to be too polarizing in the meantime though and he might need to advance to the live rounds which for him is still very 50-50.
Skyelor Anderson - He's a very affable and polite young man and he has a decent voice and the distinction of being a very rare African-American country singer but it's yet to be determined if he is strong enough to get out of the Top 32. He could just be a year or two (or few) too soon but his future could still be very bright even if he has to come back next season. It could be even brighter if that year does him good but he's still talented enough to make at least some waves should he advance this time around; a true wild card at this point.
Dexter Haygood - One of the biggest potential feel good stories of the season. His emulation issues have gotten him into hot water and it could ultimately cost him a chance to even compete in the live rounds but should he be able to make it that far, he could rather conceivably amass a very large and loyal fan base. Look for him to become part of something past his time on the show in some capacity or not and for him to at least eventually take L.A. Reid's advice of not expecting things to end. A very hard person to root against and for good reason. Would love to see him succeed past the show no matter what happens with him on the show at this point. Like Stacy Francis, it'd take a very abysmal performance in the Top 32 to prevent them from advancing him to the live rounds.
James Kenney - Very little has been seen or heard from him so far but he could be a dark horse to become a dark horse, if that makes any sense. I know. It doesn't. He could be hurt by the presence of other more sensical and attention grabbing underdogs but he remains an interesting possibility.
Tiger Budhill - Curious decision to pick the 42 year-old father over the 53 year-old widow of Ike Turner, Audrey Turner. He could do very well in more rural areas of the country should he make it to the Top 32 but he could also carry too much resentment from those who felt Turner should have advanced instead of him. And he could still be sent home before the live rounds even start. He is the biggest question mark going into the Top 32 round.
2Squar'd - Very little screen time and thus far and certainly not enough for me to form an opinion so far. They could be hurt by higher profile groups like The Anser, The Stereo Hogzz, and the two created groups, Lakoda Rayne and InTENsity.
4Shore - An inconsistent act so far, they might be too much on the outside looking in but if the other groups, more specifically The Stereo Hogzz, fails to have a good Top 32 round, then it could create an opening for them to successfully capitalize on the opportunity.
The Anser - Perhaps the one thing that really annoys me about The Anser is the refusal to put a "w" in the spelling. However, they have been semi-under the radar and could supplant both The Stereo Hogzz and 4Shore if they continue to perform consistently well and the other two groups stumble. My guess is that they are one of the safer groups in terms of vulnerability, barring a dismal Top 32 performance of course.
Illusion/Confusion - We have really only heard them once during the group round and have otherwise been just a name. That's sometimes a case of these shows holding back but it also can be a case of being elimination fodder.
InTENsity + Lakoda Rayne - Just wrote about this. There's not much to go on so far but you'd have to imagine that the show has a lot invested in these groups so barring terrible Top 32 performances, they probably want them to advance. Going into the round of 32 Paula Abdul's group is also potentially the most vulnerable group overall so there could definitely be room for both groups and given the young nature of both, could result in lots of potential votes from their peers.
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