Well, we're finally on the verge of the live shows and that can mean only one thing: there are some very, very brutal cuts ahead of us on Tuesday Night. Of the four groups, I believe that the Girls and Over 30 groups will be the bloodiest because there is not a single weak link in those two categories. I feel I am bound to only bat .500 at best in guessing each group's live round representatives.
All I ask is that you keep in mind that these picks do not necessarily reflect my own personal favorites. These are strictly the picks I am guessing that the judges themselves will make. I will keep each synopsis very short but please feel free to disagree me with me below in the comments section. There are plenty of talented people being left off the live shows at this point. In addition to my picks, I will attempt to guess the order of the remaining acts in order of who I think would leapfrog ahead of what will inevitably be some wrong picks on my behalf. I figured that'd be a fun game within the game to play.
GROUPS
1) The Stereo Hogzz - A charismatic lead singer, solid choreography, and clear support from Paula Abdul. I'd be shocked if they weren't one of the groups.
2) The Anser - Of the groups that were groups at the very beginning of the competition, The Anser and The Stereo Hogzz are at least arguably the two best. I see no scenario in which The Anser does not advance.
3) Lakoda Rayne - One of the two manufactured groups, they put together a very competent and slowed down version of Lady Gaga's "Born This Way" and I can't imagine that the show, with lots of incentive to showcase the two fostered groups in front of live audiences-slash-voters, won't let them grow and be voted on. Four mostly country slanted talented All-American girls advance with ease. Of the two groups, they are the more mature audience oriented group. Despite their own teenage youth, they could sell well across certain key demographics and Simon Cowell will not let that go to waste by not having them on the live show and that goes double for InTENsity.
4) InTENsity - The group put together a very upbeat and fun mash-up of The Ting-Tings and Hall & Oates and like Lakoda Rayne, the show has too much invested with them to not let them play out. To not do so would undermine it's own agenda. Emily Michalak and Ellona Santiago are the female stars in the making while Nick Dean and John Lindahl standout as the two young male singers with broad female appeal. They might be too High School Musical for older listeners but for this competition, there could be a strong fan base if their peers vote in droves. They are my sleeper pick in this category.
Left Out
1. The Brewer Boys - They are a more distinctive act but the obvious sabotage by Paula Abdul with their song choice indicates to me that they will get sandbagged. I do think of the four remaining acts, they have the best shot of breaking through.
2. 4Shore - They most similarly mirror The Stereo Hogzz and I'm predicting that they don't take both.
3. 2Squar'd - They were the other major female only group but already having a manufactured group that would most likely mirror them on paper, my guess is 2Squar'd fails to advance.
4. Illusion/Confusion - Just based on the little screen time and being the only group to get the cutaway treatment during their actual singing - I just can't imagine that they have a chance to advance.
BOYS
1) Chris Rene - He's been arguably the most consistent performer in this category - or at least of those we've seen consistently from first audition up to this point - and he's kept his word to the judges by staying clean. His version of "Everyday People" seemed to suggest that he won't be everyday people much longer. He advances easily.
2) Marcus Canty - He might have the best mainstream crossover appeal of all the boys. This is another no brainer for L.A. Reid. His performance in front of a facetiously chiding Rihanna in regards to his flirting with her was also another strong indication that he also possesses the confidence and charm to go far. And oh yeah - he's incredibly gifted vocally. Look for him beyond the show regardless of his finish to blossom.
3) Brian Bradley - I'm surprisingly on the fence about this pick because we all know that the cockiness and immaturity still remain so I wouldn't be shocked to see him be told that he will get there but it's just not his time just yet. On the other hand, L.A. Reid and Rihanna both know that he brought it in the last round. I still think L.A. ultimately goes strictly on talent. Simon Cowell has already bragged ahead of time that he's a giant star in the making and I couldn't agree more. His time to shine is probably still now. He stays.
4) Tim Cifers - I am very tempted to say Brennin Hunt but ultimately I think L.A. Reid listens to Rihanna and figures that she might have a point about Brennin being corny. Cifers is barely 30, is a married father of two young children, and he has a country star name to match his country star talent. His family is also a very, very strong asset for those who would vote for him. It's still much closer given all the things Hunt brings to the table but I still think L.A. picks Tim over Brennin.
Left Out
1 - Brennin Hunt - He's the guy who gets in if any of my picks are wrong. His Matt Dillion like looks goes well with the heartthrob chasing female contingency. His being picked would still come as no shocker.
2 - Nick Voss - Nick probably had at least a 50/50 shot before the last round. He's probably too much on the outside looking in at this point and I still see him as being No. 2 on the depth chart of this group of those on the outside looking in.
3 - Phillip Lomax - L.A. Reid and Rihanna basically wrote him off because of his "unique" (actually, very retro Rat Pack sound). I personally think it's great that someone so young channels some of the greatest crooners from a very often forgotten era (at least to modern day music lovers) but I still think that the market for him does exist. I just don't think that L.A. Reid and Rihanna feel it's on the show. He still has a niche to fill and I still see him having a pretty successful career in a truly classy genre of music. Still, it'd be pretty cool to see him make it to the live shows.
4 - Skyelar Anderson - The very talented but unpolished 16 year-old country singer is a distant second to Tim Cifers but don't write him off down the road. The judges still think he could be something with some proper mentoring. Look for him to be encouraged to come back next season.
OVER 30's
1) Josh Krajcik - One of the two easier calls to make here. And now that we know he's the father of a 13 year-old, his appeal as a family man trying to provide for his daughter will just make it that much easier to face the show's voters.
2) Stacy Francis - She survived an abusive marriage and the untimely passing of her father. Finally, she catches a break. She's in with ease. Her version of "Purple Rain" was arguably the best Top 32 performance. I say she's in.
3) Christa Collins - We've gradually seen more of her the past couple of episodes and her story just made it on E! News with American Idol host Ryan Seacrest. While I don't think her selection is a lock, I still believe that she is a very potent dark horse in the making. Her life story is as compelling as her talent and she is already a darling of the reality show media circuit.
4) James Kenney - My guess is that like Christa, James has gotten increasing screen time, and that this might seem to indicate a nod to the married father. Like Collins, I do not think his selection is a lock and would not very surprised if he is not chosen by Nicole Scherzinger.
Left Out
1 - Elaine Gibbs - Gibbs actually had one of the best Top 32 renditions but I suspect that Nicole isn't so sure there's a market for her. If based on her performance, she gets in. If based on other factors, the 53 year-old probably just misses the cut. Either way, I hope this isn't the end for her but she probably abandons her dream if it is and that's too bad. Somebody should sign her.
2 - Dexter Haygood - His bizarre Beyonce cover probably did the homeless rocker in but my guess is that he has already succeeded and that his old band will find new life and more importantly - a new record deal. Look for a happy ending after all but don't be surprised if Nicole just can't say no to him anyway.
3 - LeRoy Bell - His last version of Bob Dylan's "Make You Feel My Love" fell short to Nicole who astutely noticed Bell's nerves despite being the oldest remaining contestant and the most seasoned pro of all. Those remarks might have been a head fake, especially given the depth of this category, but my guess is that given that depth the room for mistakes are just that much more intolerable. Sadly, his journey ends. Hopefully, somebody will still sign him after all. The ageless wonder would make another great post-show story.
4 - Tiger Budhill - Tiger is probably the odd man out no matter what and his selection would be the biggest upset in this category. Whether he still gets a deal or not is questionable but given his economic situation, hopefully things will work out for him one way or another. Perhaps his DJing business gets a huge boost as a result of his time on the show so either way I wish him luck and much success.
GIRLS
1) Caitlin Koch - It's hard to imagine the tough as nails Rugby player not getting the nod. In the most brutal of the four categories, she's one of the two safest picks. Koch gets in easily.
2) Drew Ryniewicz - America's No. 1 Belieber is one of the biggest threats to win the entire competition and another incredibly mature slow downed piano cover, this time of Roxette's "Must Have Been Love" has everyone loving her that much more. Her voice is as mature and masterful as she is as precocious of a teenage girl. Drew is arguably the safest choice of all in this category and her stage maturity seems to be vastly superior to what her age would otherwise suggest.
3) Tiah Tolliver - Judging from the promos, this could be the one pick Simon is referencing to when he says that nobody would have expected him to be saying no to but I will make a very uneducated guess on that in the "Left Out" part of this category. If it's just sheer talent and star material projection, Tiah is a shoo-in.
4) Melanie Amaro - From a sheer marketability standpoint, I'm probably going way out on a limb here. This is the one pick of all my predictions that I am making with the least amount of ease. Amaro is unquestionably one of the Top 10 pure singers in the entire competition but despite her maturity for her age, is she exciting enough? She has a very bright future ahead but will America be wowed by her? Will they take it out on her if they don't have Tiah, Simone Battle, Rachel Crow, or Tora Woloshin to vote for instead? It's a gamble but I'm taking a chance and saying that Simon picks her. Besides, Simon has hinted more times than just in the promo for Tuesday Night's show that he loves to sometimes takes risks. I'm thinking this might be that risk despite her overwhelmingly talented voice.
Left Out
1 - Rachel Crow - Rachel could also be that risk because the same reason why I think she might not make it might be the same reason why Simon picks her - her age. She is incredibly poised and confident for her age but Simon might feel like she needs more time. By the same token, Simon probably recognizes that her strongest level of appeal might be as a bubbly young teenager and he might not want to risk losing the opportunity to make a long-term star out of her by over-thinking her more immediate future.
2 - Simone Battle - She already struggled greatly with Elton John and yet Simon still picked her. She is a pop star diva in the making but her inconsistencies might finally catch up with her. Still, this is the one category where every single person could realistically make it so there would be no great surprise should she advance.
3 - Tora Woloshin - As Simon overtly alluded to, she's fantastically talented and confident, and exudes enormous appeal and marketability but he still thinks there's just that intangible element missing. Normally you'd think this could be deliberate misdirection but given the fierce depth of this field, I'm predicting that Tora's nerves this round get the best of her and that it's 2012 for her.
4 - Jazzlyn Little - Talent wise, Jazzlyn has one of the very best voices in the competition but her lack of confidence and adolescent fueled insecurities would destroy her personally and emotionally at this point in her life. If there's an "easy" call to make here, it's with Jazzlyn. Nothing would be shocking though. Simon might still feel she's ready - under his guidance - and that would certainly be his massive ego and pride dictating that but the likely result is that she's told to come back in a year or two when she's worked on her confidence. She's still one to watch, even if not this year - she could be a true superstar and having that story of overcoming her fears would make an easy favorite out of her down the road.
Well, that's it for now. Now it's in the hands of the judges. They will certainly be taking their sweet time with two hours to kill and expect them to show pretty much everybody's result. I will be writing afterwards about the results, and how my own predictions matched up. I'm bound to get more than a couple wrong but if I didn't screw the pooch at least once or twice it probably wouldn't say very much for the shows' deep talent.
Of all the remaining 32 acts, I believe that as many as 10-12 of the artists have a legitimate chance of being crowned the winner. I also think that Simon Cowell will want to churn out more than just major recording artist of the lot and so that's my other prediction - especially given the hugely disappointing ratings by his own standards. I foresee several long lasting careers not usually found in these competitions and if there's a silver lining for him, it's that if he creates more than just a few stars then that will only aide his money making machine and heavily increase the success of a Season 2 and beyond.
As always, stay tuned.
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