The consensus going into Wednesday Night's was that it was a head-to-head duel between Lauren Alaina and Hayley Reinhart to avoid getting the axe and that the winner's prize would be the honor of getting routed by Scotty McCreery in next week's American Idol finale. Scotty's three performances were all very strong, particularly given that this still is his competition to win or lose and I believe that nothing has changed since the start of tonight's broadcast. Scotty did what he had to do - not screw up. He had three consistent performances and that very FOX forced father-son moment after Scotty's third performance was incredibly slanted and while there's no doubt that Hayley's usage of her own father playing a rather impressive lead guitar on Led Zeppelin's "What Is And Should Never Be" is as well, let's not kid ourselves that all things are equal. Scotty's not only in it to win it but provided he doesn't screw up so badly and/or renounce Jesus Christ as his savior to his Bible Belt-Cougar-Teenage Girl voting coalition, he has this made in the bag and it's really an inevitability at this point.
Lauren Alaina did a very nice job tonight; especially her second performance. That was the perfect song for her to sing and she nailed it but when Jennifer Lopez and Randy Jackson still said Scotty won the round, it probably nullified Steven Tyler's vote of confidence for Lauren Alaina and I can't imagine that even if she does make it to next week that she still won't go down in flames unless Scotty is epically upset this week. That would be an upset of monumental proportions and I just don't see it happening. Her third performance was solid enough but I just feel that her second performance was still her big moment and two out of three of the judges still went with Scotty.
It's an interesting dynamic playing out now in terms of the two country-angled remaining contestants. Lauren's going home means that Hayley has a chance to galvanize what's left of the underdog vote but she also runs the risk of being routed that much more in the finale by the voting bloc of Lauren's crossing over to Scotty unless Lauren's fans would be so incensed about Hayley taking her spot and they either rebel against Hayley or just don't vote at all.
So strangely enough Scotty's being upset tomorrow night would actually create the even more interesting dynamic along those lines. Scotty's crowning has been a near season long inevitability and his fans sure as hell know that. Their emotions would theoretically be the highest, most mixed, and most toxic to the entire voting process. Would his fans rebel against either of the girls or would they strongly pull together and vote for fellow country artist Lauren? Or would they blame both of the girls for the split and just sit out the race in its final lap. If the latter, or if they shifted their allegiances to Hayley in the final, it would almost certainly mean that Hayley would become the biggest upset winner ever - perhaps even more so than Taylor Hicks.
And Hayley went out and absolutely nailed Led Zeppelin - no easy task to say the least. Just getting approval from the notoriously lease-stingy surviving band members is tough enough but to go out, do the song and the band justice, and make it the moment of the night and Hayley's new staple performance is an entirely different thing altogether. She's been the most beat up contestant by the judges all season long but she's also a survivor. The one thing that could wreck Hayley's chances of advancing past this round is the curious selection of Alanis Moirisette's highly sexually charged scorned woman's rocker anthem. I think this was the death knell. They picked three vocal titans of the music industry for her to sing and for the very reason why the level of difficulty should help her with a curve is the very same reason why she might not survive.
I strongly believe that Hayley deserves at least a shot in the final. Scotty has been the most consistent of the remaining three contestants with James Durbin now (shamefully) gone. (He should have won the whole thing - hands down.) And he deserves a chance. And Lauren has never truly recaptured her initial magic that the producers and judges keep trying to remind us on a weekly basis. And the "Lauren is back!" fatigue has hit new levels. The country block already fully committed to Scotty at this point might hurt Lauren but we'll see. They could still be stuffing the ballot boxes for both of them for one more week regardless of what happens.
I still think it's a coin toss between Lauren and Hayley for this week. My heart says that Hayley advances but my mind is the thing undecided. The judges kept saying that Lauren won the night but let's not kid ourselves - they want an all country final. I would be personally bored by that but outside of my own personal taste (hell, I'm bored anyways with James), America probably feels the same way. That seems to be the consensus. Will the judges' praiseworthy comments about Lauren propel her into the finale our will Hayley's supporters voice their outrage again after her incredibly strong night and raise some hell and help send Lauren, not the devil, back to Georgia.
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